● Not startedPremier League
Confidence: Low
Derby County vs Swansea City Who will win? Pre-match prediction & analysis
🕐 Kickoff：8/29 19:30（GMT+8)
AI We predict this game goes to Derby County to win, with a moneyline win probability of about 55%, Confidence: Low; the most likely score is 2:1. This prediction is Proprietary Quant Model Generated automatically, published and locked in before the game, and settled transparently afterward.
1. Win probability
Derby County55%
Swansea City45%
2. Matchup lean
Derby County
55%Swansea City
45%3. Derby County vs Swansea City ScorePick Correct-score guide（Most likely score）
2:1
9%
1:0
8%
2:0
7%
4. Handicap analysis
Derby County cover rate53%
5. Over/Under prediction
Over 2.5 goals56%
6. Moneyline odds
Fair threshold1.83↑
Only worth it above this odds
7. Last 5 form
Derby Countydrawlosslosslosswin
Swansea Citydrawwinlosswindraw
🎯 How to bet this one
Top pick: bet “Over/Under threshold”
For the total, check the threshold.MoneylineCan skip.
How to bet this gameAI advice
Can skip
Handicap
Both teams too close, handicap uncertain — suggest skipping.
Model win rate only 55% Confidence Low
Recommended bet
Over/Under — threshold
Model puts this game at ~2.7 goals: line at 3+ take under, 2 or less take over, in between skip.
Estimated from this game's offense/defense data Confidence Mid
Can skip
Moneyline (Derby County win)
Limited upside — only if odds clearly above 1.83.
Model win rate 55% Confidence Mid
Books differ — we give the threshold: compare it to your platform's current line, bet if it fits, skip if not, regardless of book or decimal odds.
💡 Odds value calculator
Take the sportsbook's current "Derby County moneyline" odds, enter them, and the AI instantly works out whether the price is worth it.
→ Value
—
Value =（AI Win rate − odds-implied probability). The larger the positive value, the more the line's odds favor you (+EV). In-game odds move, so you can re-enter them anytime.
View detailed data (head-to-head / AI prediction markets)▾
Matchup info
Derby CountyHOMERecent form（win/draw/loss）
drawlosslosslosswin
Power rating1490
Swansea CityAWAYRecent form（win/draw/loss）
drawwinlosswindraw
Power rating1510
AI Prediction · market
Derby County to win this one vs Swansea City ?6 / 6
Win/draw/loss prediction
Derby County win
Home win 53% · Draw 23% · Away win 24%
Unsettledquant-v1
📌 08/26 08:00 Recorded · uneditableDouble chance / Win or draw
Derby County Win or draw
win or draw (double chance)
Unsettledquant-v1
📌 08/26 08:00 Recorded · uneditableCorrect scoreScoreline picks · graded by risk (Derby County - Swansea City）· quant-v2
Safe2:19% · 11倍Attacking pick1:08% · 13倍Value play2:07% · 14倍
Handicap prediction
Derby County give 0.5 goals
Cover probability
Unsettledquant-v1
📌 08/26 08:00 Recorded · uneditableOver/Under prediction
Over 2.5 球
Expected total goals ~2.9 goals
Unsettledquant-v1
📌 08/26 08:00 Recorded · uneditableBoth teams to score
Yes (both teams score)
BTTS · at least one team being shut out makes it "No"
Unsettledquant-v1
📌 08/26 08:00 Recorded · uneditableFirst-half result
Derby County leading
leading at the half
Unsettledquant-v1
📌 08/26 08:00 Recorded · uneditableFor information-market reference only. We do not offer betting, trading, deposits or guaranteed results. All predictions are locked in before the game and settled afterward.
FAQ
Derby County vs Swansea City Who wins?
Based on EdgePicks' proprietary quant model, we favor Derby County to win, with a moneyline win probability of about 55%, Confidence: Low.
Derby County vs Swansea City ScorePredicts：What's the most likely score?
Derby County vs Swansea City ScorePredicts，Computed by our proprietary quant model, the three most likely scorelines are 2:1（9%）, 1:0（8%）, 2:0（7%）.
Is this prediction accurate?
All predictions are published and settled afterward. The proprietary quant model is calibrated by backtesting against large volumes of real games; the full hit-rate record is on the track-record page.
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⚠️ Predictions on this page are auto-generated by a quant model — for reference and entertainment only, not betting advice. EdgePicks is an information-only service and accepts no bets. Please play responsibly and within your means. No participation under 18.